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澳大利亞很多年輕人將被迫成為終生租房族


Home ownership in Australia
譯者:unknown     發布時間:2017-11-05     超過 0 位網友閱讀

澳大利亞的年輕人必須清醒地認識到, 他們中很大一部分人一輩子都不會擁有自己的房產

原文地址:http://www.abc.net.au/


Home ownership in Australia in decline for three decades: Grattan Institute      By Stephanie Chalkley-Rhoden

澳大利亞有房族比率持續30年下滑——格拉坦研究所研究結果

Updated      8 minutes agoMon 17 Jul 2017, 1:03pm     

由斯蒂芬妮察克利羅頓于2017年7月17日星期一下午1點03分發表

終生租房族

Photo:       Housing affordability challenges mean young people could be forced to rent forever. (AAP: Tracey Nearmy)      

圖片:購房難意味著年輕人可能被迫成為終生租客(澳大利亞聯合媒體特瑞茜涅爾米提供圖片)

The number of Australian homeowners has been falling for three decades, and it could take just as long to turn the situation around, researchers say.

研究表示澳大利亞有房族的比率連續30年下滑, 要想改變這種狀況恐怕要花上同樣多的時間。

Independent think tank the Grattan Institute analysed census data and found home ownership was declining among people aged under 55.

du立運營的智庫格拉坦研究所分析了人口普查的數據, 發現55歲以下的人群中有房族的比率不斷下降。 

It has prompted warnings many young Australians are destined to be "permanent renters".

研究所警告說,很多澳洲年輕人將注定成為“終生租客。”

In 1986, 58 per cent of 25 to 34-year-olds owned their home. That number is now 45 per cent, and the drop has been particularly dramatic in the last decade.

在1986年, 25到34歲的年輕人中百分之58的人擁有房產。 而如今這個數字降到了百分之45。 在過去的十年里, 這種下滑趨勢尤其猛烈。

"That might have been written off as a result of the delay in household formation — people are getting married and starting families later, so they're buying homes later — but we see the same trends amongst older age groups as well," said Brendan Coates, a fellow at the Grattan Institute.

“大家可能把這種下滑解釋為年輕人延遲組成家庭而產生的后果——現代人結婚和組建家庭比過去都晚, 所以他們房子買得也晚——但是我們發現在更年長的人群中也出現了同樣的趨勢,”戈蘭坦研究所的研究院布蘭頓寇慈分析道。

Ownership in the 35–44 and 45–54 age groups has also fallen over the same period.

在同一時間段內, 35到44歲以及45到54歲的人群中, 有房族的比率都出現了下滑。

以上圖表來自2016年的人口普查數據。 圖表按照年齡和百分比顯示有房者比率。 數據顯示澳大利亞各年齡組中除了最年長一組, 有房族比率全部呈下滑趨勢。

Australia's housing boom is no secret, and has been going for 20 years, Mr Coates said. It has been more acute in recent years, with house prices across the country rising 40 per cent in the past five years.

寇慈先生說大利亞房地產市場的蓬勃發展并不是什么稀奇的事情, 這種繁榮景象已經持續了20年。 近年來這種現象愈演愈烈, 在過去的5年里全國的房地產價格猛增了百分之40。

"What these numbers show is that there's clearly a problem linked to housing affordability. It shows we have a really big problem in ensuring the younger generations can afford to purchase a home," he said.

他分析道:“這些數字顯示了房產價格在可負擔性上存在著明顯的問題,也顯示了我們在保證年輕人能夠擁有房產的愿景上存在非常嚴重的問題。”

Terry Burke, a professor of housing studies at Swinburne University, said the drop in home ownership would have far-reaching consequences.

特瑞博客是斯文伯恩大學研究住房問題的教授。 他認為房產所有率下滑有著非常深遠的后果。 

"The younger generation of Australians has to appreciate a good proportion of them will not become homeowners in their lifetime, they probably will be permanent renters," he said.
"For example, in 1981, the median mortgage for 25-34-year-olds was only 17 per cent of their household income, but by 2011 that was already 25 per cent.

“澳大利亞的年輕人必須清醒地認識到, 他們中很大一部分人一輩子都不會擁有自己的房產,他們可能會成為終生租客,”特瑞說:“舉個例子,在1981年25到34歲之間的年輕人所背負的房貸只占家庭收入的百分之17. 而到了2011年, 這一比率升到百分之25。

"They borrowed a lot more to achieve a similar home purchase than their parents would have 20 or 30 years ago.

同二三十年前比, 如今的年輕人需要承擔比父輩多太多的貸款才能買到差不多同樣的房產。”

"Back in the 60s and 70s and 80s you didn't have to have a dual income to become a home purchaser, now it's virtually an essential requirement."

“在60年代、70年代和80年代, 你不需要依靠雙份收入就能買房 而;現在雙收入實際上已經成了買房的入門條件。”

Professor Burke said single-income households had been almost cut out of home ownership.

伯克教授說單收入家庭基本上已經被房地產市場拒之門外了。 

Population outstrips construction

人口增長速度超過建房速度

Much of the problem comes down to supply and demand. Low interest rates mean people are able to take out higher mortgages, often with the help of equity from a previous property purchase. A population boom in metropolitan areas has fuelled the fire.

住房問題很大程度上源于需求和供給的不平衡。 銀行低息貸款讓已經擁有房產的人常常能夠拿到更多貸款。 另外, 市區附近的人口大幅度增加也讓住房問題火上澆油。

Mr Coates said housing construction had not kept up with demand, and there needed to be an increase in medium-density development in cities like Melbourne and Sydney.

寇慈先生說現在房屋建設的速度跟不上對住房的需求量的增長。 他認為墨爾本和悉尼這樣的城市需要建造更多的中密度房屋。

"You've got a backlog of a decade that you would have to overcome in order to see those prices come down or at least stabilise," he said.
"We're not talking about high-rise apartment buildings, we're talking about two to three to four-storey townhouses.
"People are wanting these kinds of homes that are close to jobs and close to amenities, but it's the sort of thing the market is not supplying at the moment because it's difficult to subdivide and build in those inner and middle ring suburbs."

 “你現在的問題是過去十年累積的結果, 所以必須要解決這些老問題才能讓房產價格降溫或者至少保持穩定,”他說:“不是說要建造高層樓房,而是要見兩層、三層到四層的小樓。”他解釋道:“大家需要這種類型的房子, 離工作地點和各種設施都比較近。但現在的市場并沒有提供多少這種住宅樓,因為在那些內城區細分地塊建造這種住宅樓的難度比較大。”

Photo:       Construction has not kept pace with population growth, the Grattan Institute says. (AAP: Joe Castro)      

圖片:格蘭坦研究所稱建房的速度跟不上人口增長的速度(澳大利亞聯合媒體喬卡斯特羅提供圖片)

Baby boomers prop up ownership rates 

嬰兒潮世代支撐房屋所有率

There has been a spike in home ownership for one demographic — baby boomers — who were able to get into the market before the boom of the last two decades. 

有一個年齡段的有房族比率出現了大幅度增長——這便是嬰兒潮世代。 

In Melbourne, the ratio of income-to-house prices has gone from being five times the median income in the 1990s to seven today.

他們在二十年前房地產尚未興旺的時候獲得了房地產的入場券。在墨爾本,年收入和房價的比率從90年代的五倍增長到現在的七倍。 

Median house price 房屋價格中位數
                     2007    2010    2013    2015    2017
Bundoora    $331k    $515k    $464k    $572k    $747k
Werribee    $223k    $285k    $281k    $315k    $434k
Pascoe Vale    $369k    $658k    $582k    $725k    $816k
Ringwood    $351k    $563k    $471k    $690k    $845k
Frankston    $259k    $364k    $350k    $405k    $557k
Source: REIV, March 2017 數據源自維多利亞房產研究所在2017年3月發布的報告

As the population has aged, the number of homeowners over 65 has grown, which has propped up the overall home ownership rate,  according to Mr Coates.
"They did have to pay high interest rates through the early 90s, but the ratio of house price-to-income was so much lower," he said.
"Older households didn't have to pay such a large multiple of their income, then when interest rates fell through the 2000s they benefited from the asset price appreciation that came from that."

據寇慈先生分析, 由于人口老化, 65歲以上的擁有房產的人數增多,這拉高了全國人口中有房族的比率。  “他們的確在90年代初付了很高的利息, 但那時房價與收入相比跟現在低很多,”寇慈說:“老一輩的家庭需要支付的房貸并沒有收入的這么多倍。到了2000年以后利率不斷降低,這些購房者從房產增值潮中獲益頗多。 ”

Mr Coates said governments and policy-makers needed to act now, because turning the tide could take decades.

寇慈先生說政府以及政策制定者需要立刻采取行動, 因為扭轉局勢可能要花上幾十年。

"It took 20 or 30 years for this problem to develop, and it will take 20 years for the problem to be solved, that's why we need to start now," he said.
"Without action there is a greater risk that millennials will miss out on the benefits of home ownership and those benefits are substantial.

“住房問題用了二三十年的時間發展到今天這么嚴峻的地步, 解決問題也需要花上20年時間。 這是為什么我們需要馬上采取行動的原因,”他說:“如果我們不采取行動, 那么很有可能我們的千禧一代會完全享受不到擁有住房的好處。有房子會給人帶來很多好處。

"It's a way of saving in a tax-preferred vehicle, there are tax breaks available to owners that are not available to renters, it's also much more secure as a form of tenure."

“我們的稅收政策是偏向有房族的——有些免稅政策只面向屋主,租客卻享受不到。擁有房產也是一種終身的權利。”

Professor Burke said tenancy laws were not set up to cater for long-term renting.

伯克教授說房屋租賃法規在制定的時候并沒有考慮到長期租客。 

"The rental market historically has been structured on the assumption you're going to be a short-term renter and will transition into ownership," he said.
"Rental security in Australia is very weak compared to many other western countries, so you'll live in fear for much of your life that you might be evicted and you won't have this sense of home."

“房屋租賃市場歷來都建立在租客只是短期租房, 然后會過渡到有自己的房子這種假設的基礎上的,”他說:“澳大利亞對租客的保障同其他西方國家比較是比較弱的。所以你在一生的大部分時間里都會擔心自己會被屋主趕出去, 而且你也不會有家的概念。”

Young families pushed to the fringes

年輕家庭被迫遷往邊緣地區

Professor Burke said cities were restructuring because of the housing market.
"You'll have a city of predominately higher-income professional households, and lower-income family households on the outskirts, so there could be issues around more polarised cities," he said.

伯克教授說由于住房市場的變化,城市的結構也隨之發生了變化。 他說:“你會看到城市里主要住著專業家庭, 而那些低收入家庭都住在遠郊。如此這樣,城市變得兩極分化, 可能會帶來一些問題。”

Many first home buyers are being forced further and further out, into growth corridors and new suburbs on the metropolitan fringe. Places without reliable public transport and established amenities. 

很多首次購房者被迫搬到越來越遠的地區, 搬到位于城市邊緣的新小區或者增長中的鐵路帶。 這些地方沒有可靠的公共交通, 也沒有完善的設施。

They're buying apartments and townhouses, which are not what Australians are used to raising a family in.

 他們買的基本都是高層或者是小樓, 以前的澳大利亞人不會在這種類型的房子里養育子女。(譯者注:以前的澳大利亞人基本都是在面積很大的花園洋房里長大) 

Photo:       It has become more difficult for lower-income families to live close to city centres.

圖片:對于低收入家庭來說, 住在離城市較近的地方逐漸成為一種奢望。      

In Victoria, figures from the State Revenue Office show the most applicants for the first home buyers grant are coming from these suburbs.

在維多利亞州, 州財務部發布的數據顯示大多數首次購房者來自這些區域。

State governments need to make it easier to subdivide in the inner and middle ring suburbs, and improve the lifestyle in the outer suburbs, Mr Coates said.
"You need to lift density along transport corridors. And then you need to fix transport infrastructure to make it easier to move into the city from the suburban fringe."

寇慈先生認為州政府需要在內城區精細規劃, 在外城區改善民生。 他說:“你需要在鐵路公路沿線的小區提高人口密度, 然后調整交通基礎建設, 讓人們可以更方便地從邊遠郊區進城。”

It seems those helping drive the prices up are already in the market and making it harder for those trying to get a foot in the door.

目前看來推高房價的是那些有房一族, 這種情況給那些想涉足房產市場的抽次購房者帶來更多的困難。

Investors have been able to buy properties using the equity of their own home, benefiting from the boom of the last two decades, Mr Coates said.

寇慈先生認為有房族能夠利用過去二十年來由于房價增長而增加的凈資產購買更多的房子。 

"The most obvious thing the Commonwealth Government could do is reduce the capital gains discount and abolish negative gearing. It wouldn't solve the problem but it would help," he said.

他建議:“聯邦政府可以做的最明顯的改革措施是降低資產增值稅折扣(譯者注:澳洲投資房賣出后, 政府僅對房產增值的50%收取增值稅),并廢除利息扣稅(譯者注:澳洲政府對投資房的房租收稅, 但可以扣除銀行利息后計算稅收額)。這些改革雖然不會解決問題, 但可以緩和一下。” 

Adding home ownership to the aged pension asset test would also go a long way. "We're not targeting those most in need," he said. 
"Half of all pension payments go to households with half a million dollars in net wealth, and 20 per cent of payments go to households with more than a million in net wealth."

另外, 把房產計算到養老金領取者的資產評估里也可以大有助益。 “我們并不是針對那些最需要幫助的群體,”他說:“一半養老金發放給了那些家庭凈資產達到50萬澳元的家庭, 百分之20發放給了那些凈資產超過100萬澳元的家庭。”



 
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